Well as we get closer and closer to week 4 and almost 1/3rd of our fantasy regular season complete, there are some names that have to be mentioned.

On the Dud side some are too obvious and probably sending many fantasy owners into fits of crying in the fetal position.  Owners of Larry Johnson, Tomlinson and Steven Jackson please stand.  The consensus big three have been average or below average, and in the case of Jackson now injured for multiple weeks.  As excited as you were to get the first pick in your draft and the chance to draft LT, you are now just equally upset as you scan the fantasy boxscores Sunday night.  For those three guys though, you know they will turn it around (when Jackson returns) and in the case of LT his fantasy points actualy have not been that bad, just not at LT standards.  There are many other DUDs though that have to be called out, studs that have to be recognized or tweeners that need to be watched:

Tweener - Reggie Bush - the super sophmore was on the verge of DUD until he went for two touchdowns in week 3.  Given he had no yardage to go with those touchdowns, it is actually the season ending injury to Deuce which keeps Bush as a tweener.  Bush should get even more carries and all the redzone work now, and should start to provide some serious fantasy points.  So far though, for the model player for point per reception leagues, he has been a big disappointment.

Tweener - Cedric Benson - Some are calling Benson a dud so far, but he was not projected that high and has already put in a 100 yard rushing effort in the first three weeks.  If Chicago could do anything through the air (and Griese has just been named the new starter), then the ground game would open up more for him.  He is a good buy low candidate right now.

Tweener - Laurence Maroney - I will say it right now - noone has been more the victim of the connection between Brady and Moss than Maroney.  Maroney is averaging 4.5 ypc, and has put in some highlight reel runs, but when the team can go to the air at will and are blowing out teams by 20+ points, there is little reason to run your star young RB heavily this early in the season.  The only group affected by this are us fantasy freaks.  The main issue is if the Patriots continue to score like this, will Maroney get a heavy workoad anytime soon?  I think he is in for some big weeks as defenses adapt to trying to stop Brady from throwing, so do not sell Maroney while his value us low.

Tweener - Chris Chambers - Chambers has all the talent but has not been able to keep it up over multiple seasons.  This year it is not him I am down on, it is the Miami offense in general.  At anytime I think it can dry up and take all viable Miami fantasy players with it.  Ride the hot streak Chambers is on right now, but be weary of what Miami might be doing closer to the end of the year when you need Chambers to perform. 

DUD - Matt Leinhart - He could easily turn it around, but his production so far has been horrible given the case around him.  With Boldin and Fitz to throw to, and Edge in the backfield, Leinhart should have no problem putting up consistent 300 yard multiple TD efforts and he simply is not.  Though he will probably improve, I would trade him to anyone who still goes by his name and you can sell them on his receivers, before his benchings in favor of Warner become more consistent.

DUD - Lee Evans - I am glad I called this one in the preseason.  Many were projecting Evans to be a top 10 receiver.  Though I think Evans is a talent, without a consistent QB throwing the ball, there was no way for Evans to make that leap.  He put in a few solid games at the end of last season and was suddenly a weekly threat.  I don’t think so, and now that Losman is out hurt, I don’t think Evans has any trade value at all.

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Week 3 is in the books minus the Monday Night game, and after three weeks we can finally start to see some real trends.  We can start to tell which players are for real this season, and who should not be on a fantasy roster regardless of their preseason hype.

Lamont Jordan - Is back to being a top 10 fantasy back.  Even in an extremely weak Oakland offense, Lamont is running and catching passes at an excellent rate.  He is an every week play again.

Braylon Edwards - With a questionable QB situation heading into the season Braylon was only considered a WR2, or flex WR.  Charlie Frye played teh first half of game 1, and the predictions looked exactly correct.  Then Frye was pulled, Derek Anderson has played since and Braylon has been putting up highlight plays.  With 2 touchdowns in week 2, followed by another touchdown in week 3, Braylon is an excellent start at the moment.

Bernard Berrian - Last season Berrian was a big play receiver where it was basically all or nothing with him.  This season after watching a few Bears games, it is obvious he is their number one option on the field.  He is running short routes, streaks and is the first choice in the red zone.  Berrian is only limited by Grossman’s lack of playmaking, but he is definitely getting the targets on a weekly basis.

DeShaun Foster/ Deangelo Williams - This was suppose to be Deangelo’s team this season.  After Foster went down with yet another injury last year, the Panthers were going to hand the reigns over to Williams. But following a poor preseason by Williams, and a strong start by Foster, until Foster remembers that he is injury prone, he looks to be getting the majority of touches moving forward.  With two touchdowns and 100+ yards rushing in week 3, he only cemented that status further.  If you own Foster it might be a good time to trade for Williams (while his value is low) to handcuff him for later in the season, as it would be very rare to see Foster play 16 games.  If you only own Williams, bench him for now as he is only good for about 10-12 carries a game right now.

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NBA Training camps are just about to open, so it is a good time to predict who is looking to make a surprise impact on your fantasy roster this season, or who might be going lower on the rankings sheet than they really should be. 

Randy Foye - I predict by half way through preseason, Randy Foye will be on every list as a sleeper of the year.  That doesn’t mean you won’t be able to get him if you pay attention to your draft, but I am also warning about taking him to high.  Yes, Foye should be much improved over last season, and they basically have handed him the PG reigns, but on a team that is now completely being rebuilt that doesn’t mean the stats will follow.  The ball is going to have to be shared amongst Al Jefferson (option #1), Ricky Davis (option #1a if he stays), Gerald Green, McCants and Corey Brewer. As Foye is not really a playmaking guard it will be interesting to see how he runs this offense.  He should have a decent season, but do not reach for him.

Darko Milicic - How many years has Darko been on the sleeper lists heading into your draft.  Last year for sure, as everyone expected him to blow up playing next to Dwight Howard.  Well, he didn’t as he still only got 22-24 mins a game in Orlando and was basically a disappointment for the 4th year in a row.  Enter 2007/ 08 and I think he is in a better situation in Memphis.  It is a more veteran team with Gasol and Mike Miller as the team leaders, so there is little pressure on Darko.  I expect him to have a solid season with averages of 12 points - 8 boards - 2 blocks, with the bonus that some weeks he will carry your team in blocks by himself.

Jamal Magloire - The Big Cat is going to New Jersey, a team in desperate need of a big man.  That alone is a good thing.  I am not expecting Magloire to return to all-star status, but I expect him to play very similar to his years in Milwaukee as a 10-10 type guy, with maybe a boost in points since he is playing with Jason Kidd.  Rank him according to those numbers and don’t forget about him on draft night.

Charlie Bell - As long as Bell goes to Miami where it seems he is destined at the moment, he could be a great producer for threes and points.  He will be a combo guard who plays the point on occasion, but his main strength is shooting from behind the arc.  The Miami situation is good for him right now for three reasons: 1) Shaq usually makes shooters better, because he demands the double team and but unlike most post men, Shaq will kick the ball out.  That results in a lot of wide open looks for Bell.  2) He is playing behind Jason Williams.  J-Will has game, but he is always hurt, and isn’t fully healthy right now after a full offseason.  There could be a lot of minutes for Bell.  3) Wade will miss the first few weeks of the season, allowing Bell to get extra minutes early and comfortable in the offense, hopefully proving himself in the process.  If you need threes, watch for where Bell is sliding in your draft.

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Everyone always rushes to put out a waiver wire watch on Monday or Tuesday.  That should be renamed the weekend recovery or something, because basically you are just picking up the pieces left over from injuries that happened the day before.  The real rumors come out once the teams hit the practice field again and start preparing for the next week.  Who was the coach pleased with, lost confidence in, etc.  Those are the rumors you need to pay attention to, to dig down those waiver lists to find the gem that will win this week’s matchup.  Here are a few of those rumors, some of which will be obvious by now, others that may have just been released.

Byron Leftwich - Signed a two year deal in Atlanta.  If you have Joey Harrington I hope you ran out and grabbed this guy, but if not please do not rush.  He won’t play until he understands the system, and he is walking into a system that simply has little talent this season.  Michael Vick could produce very little in this offense, Byron is not going to do much more if, and when he gets to play.  Atlanta will lose a few more games and then be looking to tank for next year which should be good news for Norwood owners soon, not Leftwich.

Andre Johnson - If you believe all reports, Andre Johnson is not playing this weekend.  That means two things. 1 - Draft day super sleeper Jacoby Jones is going to get serious playing time and if he does well it could carry over into more games even when Johnson returns, and 2. Owen Daniels should be more involved from the TE position.  The real excitement is around Jones.  Watch his play this weekend to gauge if he deserves a start in upcoming weeks.

Dehsawn Wynn - Reports have been back and forth on Wynn all week.  Basically this situation is going to get messy, because Morency, the intended number one RB before the season started, is also about to enter the picture.  If you are already trying to juggle GB running backs then having Wynn makes sense, but outside of that, only take him for the chance he builds trade value in the coming weeks.  All three GB running backs are beginning to look like very bad plays, as they prepare to hit the field competing for the same carries, and against Favre who really just wants to throw.

Jeff King - Who?  Jeff King the TE in Carolina.  Steve Smith has been amazing as usual but no other receiver has been able to step up for Delhomme.  The result is Delhomme has started throwing at the tight end and King has responded.  It is only week 3, so maybe it is early to gauge this interest, but if you need a backup TE for an upcoming bye week King is worth a look.

Nate Burleson - Nate has returned to the fantasy scene.  Starter DJ Hackett’s high ankle sprain has gotten worse in every report as the week has gone on, and it looks like Burleson will get a couple more starts.  He is playing well, and should be more in synch with Hasselbeck the next couple weeks.  He is a great WR3 right now.

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In fantasy basketball the center position is much like running backs in fantasy football - very productive if you get an elite one, but there are few to choose.  The NBA game has gone to using more versatile smaller players, and though this speeds up the game and increases scoring, it reduces the number of quality big men in the league.  If your searching for a fantasy center this draft day, this is how I would rank the top 15.

1 - Amare Stoudamire - He is a power forward playing in the center position on the right team.  He has the size, strength and athleticism to play with any bigger center, but they aren’t quick enough to guard him, and put someone smaller on him and he is goes over the top.  Now that he has developed a mid-range jumper his offensive game is limitless, especially playing alongside Steve Nash.  He rebounds well, gets blocks and the scary thing is he is only getting better.  He has fully recovered from knee surgery and this year will be playing starter minutes in game 1. 

2 - Yao Ming - Ming is a traditional center.  He is huge and has developed an offensive game that noone can stop due to his size.  At his height he clears the glass and gets blocks without even trying.  Small hook shots and put back shots easily get him 25 ppg.  The downside on Ming is his inability to stay on the floor so far with an assortment of foot ailments and other similar injuries.  If Ming can’t put together 75 games this year, he will be labelled an injury risk and will drop down these ratings. 

3 - Dwight Howard - The new Man-Child in Orlando is a rebounding beast.  He will carry your team in that category if you draft him and if rebounds is all you need move him up one slot as he is a safer play than Ming injury wise.  His only knock so far is his ability to score every night with the same aggression.  Some nights he looks unstoppable going to the rim for dunk after dunk, while other nights you don’t see him.  This is only his 4th year so watch for more improvement in his offensive game as he better learns post moves, not just overpowering defenders.  Once he figures out how to score 20 ppg he will be a fantasy force.

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The shooting guard position. Probably the most exciting position in the NBA, and clearly has some of the most talented players.  The shooting guard position provides a mix of slashers, shooters, and even combo point guards.  In this day in the NBA, the SG position can basically be swapped with the SF position on any play, and who you defend often more defines which position label you get.  BUT, you don’t get named the “SHOOTING” guard for nothing as many of the games best scorers come from this backcourt position and that means fantasy gold.  Here is my breakdown on the top 15 SG’s in fantasy basketball:

1 - Kobe Bryant -The best scorer in the league since Michael Jordan hands down.  You always know there will be “another” player come along, but you almost wish MJ and Kobe could have matched up more often as it would have been a duel.  While MJ was better in a team environment, noone can say that Kobe hasn’t overcome obstacles and still dominates the league daily.  In fantasy you are going to get his scoring, threes, and a decent number of assists and steals.  But the scoring alone is enough to carry your team in that one category.  The only asterisk next to Kobe’s name this season is offseason rumblings regarding get me talent or trade me.  I do not see Kobe staying off the court or letting it affect his game, but his desire to win is enough to watch this situation closely and that it doesn’t boil over into the regular season beyond just rumblings.

2 - Vince Carter -Almost hurts to put Vince in this spot, but his stats speak for themselves.  He seems to have shed his injury tag, and even though you know he could score more on the court if he played like a beast every night, his 25-27 ppg, with 6 rebounds, 5 assists and abundance of threes can’t be ignored.  These stats have remained consistent the past two seasons, so it seems Vince has found a home he likes in NJ.  With no major player changes this offseason in Net land, expect Vinsanity to be back at these numbers.

3 - Andre Iguodala- A.I the second in Philly is now the man in Philly and the better A.I. fantasy choice.  Without Iverson dominating the ball, Iguodala scored more (at a 18 point clip) and had more assists (almost a 6 clip).  He is an excellent defender and averages over 2 steals a game.  He needs to get more consistent from the arc, but with his steals, if he could get his points in the 23-25 range he would be the second best fantasy SG, and if you want a player less prone to injury take him with that spot.

4 - Ray Allen- 32 years old, ankle surgery and a trade.  That normally spells downhill slide, but Allen’s situation is different.   He is coming off possibly his best stat season ever and was traded to a team where he has a legitimate chance to win a title.  That motivation alone will keep him playing at an extremely high level.  Not having to dominate the game on every possession or be faced with double teams every play, will also save his ankles and improve his scoring opps.  He has a great opportunity in Boston to be an even better NBA and fantasy player.  With Allen he will carry your three point category by himself, will drop 20+ points and should see an increase in assists as he plays more of a playmaker role in Boston. 

5 - Dwayne Wade- Easily the #2 SG on this board if he was healthy.  It is not the offseason shoulder and knee surgery that scares me, but as I write this reports say Wade will miss at least the first few weeks of the season.  That isn’t going to kill your fantasy team, but it puts him behind the players above plain and simple.  Games are games and missing part of the season has to be taken into consideration. 

6 - Joe Johnson- JJ nearly made the top 5.  I was very close to putting him there, and if I had a better report on Wade at this time he may have made it.  Johnson has thrived in Atlanta and is now there leader on the floor.  He scores at a 25 ppg rate, while providing threes, and 4 assists, 4 rebounds a game.   I don’t see a big increase in these numbers, but I don’t see a fall off either.  Don’t be concerned about the calf injury from last year.  A one-time injury which will be healed before training camps.

7 - Tracy McGrady- TMac could be a fantasy monster if his ailing back would just let him get through one more full season.  In Houston where the offensive sets are a little slower and he shares the ball with Ming, his scoring has dropped to the 25-26 range, but with that drop comes an increase in assists and he was above 6 last season.  Throw in 5 rebounds, steals and threes and his average stats are as good as anyone above.  The big question though is how many games can you get from TMac?  I now bank on 70+ and anything above is gravy, and if I get those 70 games then he deserves 7th place.

8 - Allen Iverson- Another player I would love to move up.  His stats are more valuable than 8th, as he scores at 25+, and has big numbers in assists and steals, but AI the warrior is starting to miss games every year and his FG% is always questionable.  His three production in Denver has also dropped.  We hope for an improved second year with Melo and Iverson playing side by side from the start of the season, but the those missed games to injury are still a concern because you know Iverson is going to be diving everywhere on any given play.

9 - Michael Redd- Like Ray Allen, the player he replaced in Milwaukee, Redd defines a shooting guard position.  He is a pure scorer with big range.  From a fantasy perspective you get 25+ ppg and a ton of threes, but while everyone above him contributes some in other categories, Redd really does not.  He does not pass or rebound well at all, and gets few steals.  His scoring alone warrants 9th place, but he is not yet ready to topple any above him.

10 - Brandon Roy- With Greg Oden just going down to season ending surgery before his season even began, Roy will be expected to step up even more this season for Portland.  Given as a rookie he averaged 16 points with 4+ rebounds and assists and range out to the arc, he is my pick to be the player who moves up, or challenges to move up this list the most by next season.  If you like to draft based on upside, verus veterans who often injure themselves, then Brandon Roy is your guy.

11 - Ben Gordon- In his first couple seasons, Gordon was even more two dimensional than Redd, but he seems to finally be rounding out his game to include some other stats.  His fame will still come from the points and threes he will provide you each night, but you can now expect averages of 3 rebounds and assists as well.  If you happen to track FT% he is excellent from the line.  HIs points will come in bunches so don’t get stuck on the starting versus non starting gig, as long as he is getting his 30+ mins of burn.  If there was one player who could take the microwave tag title away from old Vinnie Johnson, it has to be Ben Gordon.

12 - Manu Ginobili- Perhaps the most frustrating player on this list.  He has a very well rounded fantasy game with 16 ppg, 4+ rebounds and 3+ assists with steals and threes, but why does he only truly excel in the playoffs?  Vince Carter gets burned for not stepping up on a daily basis yet Manu is known as a playoff guy.  Screw that, the guy should be dropping 20+ a game with better numbers across the board and starting every game.  He has that kind of talent.  As it is, he is values around 12-15 on the rankings board as you know his stats this season are going to be exactly like last. 

13 - Ricky Davis- This pick gets a huge asterisk next to it.  If Ricky Davis is still in Minnesota at the start of the season, and is the main option on the floor every night for the Timberwolves he is going to have a field day, which include points, rebounds, steals and assists.  But, if Ricky is traded anywhere, where he is not a top scoring option, his value drops to about a 20th ranking.  I don’t see how he is in the long term plans for the Wolves with all the trades recently made, but as of now there is little talk of Ricky going anywhere else.

14 - Jason Richardson- In Golden State J-Rich would be projected a few spots above this, as he simply has a better fantasy game across the board than the players immediately above, but with the trade to Charlotte there are more question marks to be answered.  While he should be the number one option on offense, how well he gels with an improving Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace and Adam Morrison, could slow him early on and hamper his season averages/ totals.  As well, how Charlotte uses its rotations could play a major role in if J-Rich produces Golden State like numbers, or just above average numbers.  Watch this situation in preseason and adjust your rankings based on how he appears to be fitting in.

15 - Jason Terry - Terry is a very dependable player, rarely missing games due to injury, and that helps him stay in the top 15.  He only scores around 15-17 a game in Dallas, but his assists are up above 5 a game again and his scoring mostly comes from behind the arc for a great source of threes.  Has little upside at this stage of his career, but as long as the guard rotations stay the same in Dallas he should continue to contribute these kinds of numbers. 

Five Players with potential to be top 15:

1 - Kevin Martin - major scorer and threes
2 - Rip Hamilton - always scores the same, few other categories
3 - Rudy Gay - Was good as a rookie, might be extremely good in year 2
4 - Monta Ellis - J-Rich is gone.  The SG position is his, plus he splits time at PG with Baron
5 - Larry Hughes - A couple years ago he was top 10.  If he could stay on the court he has fantasy value as a 15/5/5 guy

Ok been away for a few days trying to regroup after a horrible start to my fantasy football season.  I need about 50 points from McNabb and Westbrook in the Week 2 MNF game in order to have one of my five leagues go 2-0.  Last season I was barely defeated over in the entire regular season in multiple leagues, but so far this year nothing is working.  I am getting huge games out of many players I picked to do well, just not a consistent team effort across the board.  Well, the one thing that happens as I stare at my TV for 10 hours in disbelief each Sunday is you can pick out the players surprising everyone, and some potential sleepers to watch for.  This would be my list from week 2:

Quarterbacks

1 - Sleeper - Kyle Boller - Seems to be playing with more confidence than I have ever ever before, and in his limited time at the end of week 1 (Todd Heap caught the tying TD and the offensive interference call was potentially the worst call of the year) followed by a decent performance in week 2 may put Boller in the driving seat in this offense.  McNair did little in his time week 1 and is at teh age where injury comes with each hit, so if Boller can get a few more starts he is definitely worth a bye week play.

2 - Surprise - Jake Delhomme - Delhomme and Steve Smith are back on the same page this year and that alone can caarry any fantasy team.  They have hooked up for 5 touchdowns in the first two games.  Delhomme has been extremely accurate so far, and if the Panthers could get a conistent running game going or at least someone who could catch the ball across from Smith, Delhomme would be putting up monster numbers.  Watch for rookie WR Jarrett to get a shot soon, or Drew Carter to play more, and stabalize the receiver position.  Either way, Delhomme has played like a younger version of himself so far.

3 - Surprise - Derek Anderson - I hate to do it, but you have to mention Anderson this week.  He is no where near as good as his performance just put in against the Bengals, but at the same time he definitely earned his starting position right now.  He has Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow and good role playing receivers in guys like Jurevicious.  He has enough options to put up average fantasy stats any given week, but his performance against the Bengals has to be the surprise game of the year.  It will allow Cleveland to keep Brady Quinn on the bench a couple more games and if you have a bye week early on, he should be a decent replacement, but I still believe he is just keeping the seat warm for Brady and one bad game may do him in.

Running Backs

1 - Sleeper - LenDale White - I thought White played himself out of the position in preseason, but his week 2 performance is going to gain him carries, and most importantly he looks primed to receive all of the red zone shots which is where the real fantasy points are.  Chris Brown is still going to get carries and share the load, and on some days have the bigger day, but the Titans want White to be their back.  That along with the higher potential in the red zone, and understanding that they will be going with White more and more as the season goes on, versus Brown who is under just a one year contract, means if you have him on the roster live through some medicore weeks early on as it should pay dividends later and be a good bye week play.

2 - Surprise - Jamal Lewis - Lewis jumped out of 2005 and decided to run the ball again.  With Cleveland owning the air, Jamal had freedom to run and when he can gets room he still breaks tackles and can take it to the house.  A huge day was exactly what Jamal Lewis needed to get some confidence back.  I don’t feel Cleveland has a good enough team for him to be a solid play every week, but when the matchup is in his favor he is worth a look.  Watch his performances closely and if he repeats with a few solid outings sell high if he is already on your roster.

3 - Sleeper - Marshawn Lynch - The new rookie in Buffalo is running the ball extremely well only two pro games into the season.  He is displaying exactly what was advertised with his game, solid running and good hands out of the backfield.  Lynch has faced a couple tough defenses so far, so hasn’t had huge stats yet, but has played better than his total stats show.  He is taking all the snaps right now, and his only competition is Anthony Thomas who is not in Bufalo’s plans at all.  He has a favorable second half schedule and would be a great candidate to trade for while his value isn’t too high and have his games heading into the fantasy playoffs. 

4 - Avoid - Julius Jones - I was big on Jones heading into this season, and I actually think he is playing well but he has one big problem and that problem goes by the name of Marion Barber III.  Jones is the type of runner who needs carries to get himself going.  Splitting the carries 50/50 is simply not going to help him at all, and right now Barber is running much, much better off of those limited carries.  Throw in that Barber is still getting 90% of the red zone shots, and Jones has limited value only mustering 40-60 rush yards a game without TD’s.

Wide Receivers

1 - Sleeper - Jacoby Jones - This pick depends on one factor - if Andre Johnson is unable to go this weekend, Jones could get his starting shot and that may be all he needs to get cemented into this Houston offense.  Right now he is just on the outside looking in, but he is an extreme athlete who just needs more experience.   If Johnson plays, then Jacoby is not yet worth a start unless you are in extreme deep leagues.

2 - Surprise - Chris Chambers - Chambers has all the talent but his inconsistemcy drives owners crazy.  Two years ago he seemed to elevate his game to everyday fantasy starter, but then last season took a big step backwards.  This year with Trent Green at QB, not much was expected from Chambers, but in only two games he has 15 catches for over 200 yards and looked extremely good in week 2.  He is worth starting again in all formats as the number one option in Miami.

3 - Surprise - Wes Welker - Ok, after a solid week 2 performance he is a legitimate starting fantasy WR.  He was probably targeted the most times in the new England offense, after also being a main threat in week 1 and is well ahead of Stallworth and Gaffney on the depth chart.  Randy Moss opens up the field, and Welker is hitting every slant play and also contributes with kick return stats.  He is a great play right now with New England moving the ball so efficiently.

4 - Avoid - Ronald Curry/ Jerry Porter - Curry may prove me wrong, but the Oakland offense still looks horrible beyond Lamont Jordan, as they have no consistency from the QB position.  I am not sure why they are not giving Culpepper a shot, as McCown is not the answer.  Until a QB can prove themselves in Oakland I do not like any wide receivers in that offense to provide consistent fantasy stats each week. 

Instead of the normal fantasy strategy, advice, rankings, or sleepers that I love to spit out for football, basketball and hockey,  today’s entry is simply an out take on everything football contest related.  Call it the Thursday blues, when I have a roster ready for the weekend, my beer and chips in hand, but the games still days away (that first week thursday night game is a tease). You gotta turn to something - I have chosen Pick ‘em pools.

I am quickly realizing that all things football, and sports for that matter can begin to take over my life.  For the past number of years, normally it was roster decisions alone that dominated my Sunday mornings.  Well add a new ritual to the mix, Pick ‘em pools.  I have realized that Pick ‘em pools can be as exciting as fantasy sports if you can do well in the first few weeks.  What seemed like an easy choice in the first five weeks starts to becomes a grueling decision when you have a chance to win a pool.  Just like who to start, it becomes is Atlanta really good enough to cover 10.5 points on the road… 

In making my weekly picks I have found eery similarities between fantasy and pools:

Research time:  While your obsession is player stats in fantasy sports and what player matchup is best, you just switch that to what team is the best matchup.  And when you know the players inside out, you get a good feeling for how teams are going to play.

Road Advantage:  While every deep fantasy player knows which players are best or worst on the road, and will start or bench based on where they are playing, in pools the road/ home advantage is everything, especially when playing ATS pick ‘ems.

NFL Sunday - When you were young you just watched your favorite team play, then fantasy had you switching channels to watch your fantasy players, well guess what, pools just gave you an excuse to watch every game.  It is a natural transition through life, don’t fight it, we were meant to watch every Sunday game.

MNF - see NFL Sunday.  Pools are the perfect substitute when you somehow managed to not draft a player in a Monday Night Football matchup.  They go hand in hand, one backs up the other.

In all seriousness, if you are a big fantasy player, you can probably be a successful pools player.  Your time understanding matchups and players leads you to knowing how well teams can play.  At least a small piece of it, enough to allow you to pick 16 games quickly and get in the game…..

We have the point guards in the books, so it is now time to look at the the best fantasy forwards in the game today.  I am going to combine SF and PF, since in today’s NBA most teams do not have a clear cut power forward/ small forward anymore, but versatile forwards who play all frontcourt positions. 

These rankings are produced with the understanding that all players are healthy, but I clearly recognize below who is the injury proned players and who is a gamer.

1. Kevin Garnett- 31 years old and just traded to Boston with two other star players - guess what, it ain’t gonna matter.  Garnett is still going to be a fantasy beast and maybe even more so in the East where he can clean the glass with ease, get numerous putbacks per game, and up his already impressive assists average with kick out passes to Paul Pierce and Ray Allen who will be just drooling no longer seeing double teams.  On top of that Garnett knows this is his chance for a ring so he will be motivated to play at his best.  The only category which may drop slightly for him is scoring, but still expect at least 20 ppg and while having dominating rebound, assist, block and FG% numbers.
2. LeBron James- Could fall in the shooting guard section, but James has been starting at SF for the past year.  In most drafts you are going to see this kid go first overall and you can’t go wrong picking him.  While on one hand we know he could drop a triple double on any given night we also realize that he is still improving which is scary and validates his pick.   Garnett will rebound more, Kobe will score more, but noone has more of an all-around game than LeBron James.
    
3. Dallas Dirk  - If he is eligible for center in your league it is a no brainer on Dirk and your laughing.  His three point  production has dropped slightly in the last couple years (in terms of makes, not percentage), but with that he has been going to the hoop more and improving his FG%.  His scoring has only gone up, so you may have to trade a few threes for better shooting percentage.   The only stat category you will get little production in is assists, as Dirk is not a playmaker, but he averages 8+ rebounds a game and shoots 90% from the line.
4. Shawn Marion - The Matrix put up another complete fantasy season and is one of the only players to significantly impact 5 categories like he does.  He is never at the top of cheat sheets, yet seems to lead most rating systems during the year.  He produces points, rebounds, blocks, steals and even threes.  The Matrix does it all.  My only concern this season is all of the trade talk.  If Phoenix is winning and making a run at the finals he will play at a top level, but if his name continues to surface as a player on the way out, it normally affects a players focus and intensity.  Phoenix has brought in Grant Hill who will also eat into a few of Marion’s minutes.  At the end of the day Marion always has an excellent season but I think his stats may slightly drop this year.
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A look at the performances (highs and lows) to note in week 1 of our young fantasy football season:

 Quarterbacks:

Tony Romo - Wow, I guess that miss snap made him angry, not jittered.  Romo came out with a vengence in week one and depending on your quaterback scoring categories may have led your league in points.  If you really look closely at the game though a few things are still questionable.  Romo had a really hard time finding his wide receivers.  Witten was open all day, but his big play guys didn’t get things going until the second half.  Owens had two touchdowns, but only three catches overall.  Also the running game was adequate but not great.  All in all an excellent week one for Romo and he is always a safe start, but don’t expect this production each week until the wideouts are more involved.

Tom Brady - I have been saying it all preseason.  Brady with horrible receivers is still an excellent fantasy QB.  Brady with stand-out receivers could be scary.  Brady made Moss a star again in one afternoon, connecting with him 9 times for 180+ yards.  That is more yards than many QB’s had in total.  Mix in Stallworth and Welker and he has some weapons.  If everyone remains healthy, Brady is going to be in for a big season.  He should have been the third QB off the board in drafts.

Big Ben - Well they said the offense would open up and Ben would air it out more, but throwing for four touchdowns in his first season start was unexpected.  BUT, if you look inside the numbers, he still did not have a great fantasy day.  He still only threw for 160 yards on 12 completions, total in the game, he just happened to open it up with some big plays that came through.  Take away a couple of those plays and Ben would have been average at best, or actually, like he has been in seasons past - low yards and a couple TD’s.  I like the new offense, but would like to see Ben throwing more per game, before I declare that he is on his way to a major fantasy contributor each week.  This game was also against the Browns which does not instill confidence that those big plays will be made against anyone.  Ben is not yet a safe play, but would make a great sell high candidate.

Running Backs:

Marshawn Lynch - 19 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown.  Only in deep leagues was Lynch probably started, since owners did not know what to expect after a quiet preseason from the rookie.  Well the future is Lynch and Anthony Thomas only carried the ball three times, so until Lynch has a bad game I would fully expect him to be the dominant back in this offense.  Getting out to this start was huge for him and his owners.

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