Well the 2007/ 08 preseason is already greater than one week old.   While the old vets are hardly seen, the rookies and guys we know will never make the team are being showcased for final roster spots.  Rookies have had the summer league and now a few NBA showings to help us decide if they can make any impact at all on a fantasy roster this season, and from what I have seen, this is how I feel about some of our 2007 rookie class:

Kevin Durant, Supersonics- Obvious choice but I actually don’t like Durant as much as you would expect.  He should easily put up the most stats of the rookies, but all indications are that he will struggle with his shot early and his FG% on such a young Sonics team will plummet.  It will actually be very good for Durant, if Wally and Ridnour (or Watson) step up and take some of the offensive burden off, so Durant can let the game come to him and not always force.  That all being said, this kid is going to get major minutes, has range out past the arc, and once he hits his groove can shoot with anyone.  He is going to get his stats and help any fantasy roster and be a gold mine in keeper leagues.

Al Thornton, Clippers- Thornton was stated to be one of the more “NBA ready” rookies coming out of college.  He is older at age 24 and appears more physically prepared for an 82 game season.  That didn’t mean a whole lot until Elton Brand went down to a major achilles injury.  Suddenly the door was wide open for Thorton, and while the Clips take another blow to the chin, us non-Brand fantasy owners got a little excited.  Everything in summer league and preseason says that Thornton is ready to earn the minutes so expect him to put up top 3 rookie stats. 

Al Horford, Hawks- While the Hawks have been stockpiling lottery talent they haven’t focused on team needs which has really hurt their progress the last couple seasons.  In the 2007 draft, with Conley Jr. staring them in the face they again had to go to the best big man on the board and that was Florida’s Al Horford.  Well this choice was most likely a solid selection.  The jury is out on whether the gamble to take a PG with their next pick in Acie Law will work, but Horford appears ready for the NBA.  He is not outstanding, but just has a solid overall game and does the intangible which win games.  Expect 12-8 and a block out of Horford as he continues to earn more minutes as the season wears on.

Jeff Green, Sonics- Many people are calling Green the Pippen and Durant the Jordan, but in fantasy basketball world, we all may have picked Pippen and his all around game ahead of Jordan and his scoring ability, and when we look back, that may be the way this draft should have gone.  This young Seattle roster will result in lots of minutes for the rookies Green and Durant.  That along is enough to validate him one of the top five rooks, but his play this preseason has backed it up.  Expect Green to score more than expected, without sacrificing the all around game everyone is expecting.   He is not ahead of the highly touted Durant, but his all around game makes him very valuable as a rookie. 

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Keeper or Dynasty leagues are honestly my favorite format for fantasy.  They obviously run much better when done with a close group of friends, but I find them much closer to simulating what real fantasy sports is about, building and running your own sports franchise.  I pride myself on the ability to build a team, and there is nothing worse than at the end of the year realizing your entire season’s work must be started over the following year. 

With a keeper league comes new strategy though.  Many newbies to the keeper game, just jump on rookies assuming that by getting the right one it will carry their team forever, but a lot more thought needs to go into your draft strategy.  How many keepers does each team have, Can I balance young with old, and continue to replace my older players each season versus go with all young players in year 1.   Sacrifice year one and build with rookies or go with talent and build two years down the road.  I prefer balance when building my team, but again it depends on how many keepers you have to play with. 

If I was entering a first year keeper league, these are the top 20 players I would look at:

1 - LeBron James - King James ranks in the top 3 of all fantasy lists and he is only 23 years old.  You do not get a better keeper player than Bron.

2 - Gilbert Arenas - Agent Zero is making a push to be the number one fantasy player this season, that’s how far his game has come and he is still only 25 years old.  He fills the stat sheet, and dominates threes and points. 

3 - Dwayne Wade - Wade is officially starting to scare me with his injuries, but his game is so refined that at age 25 you have to look at him this high in a keeper league.  Let’s hope the recent shoulder and knee surgery have him put him in the right place to have a long career.

4 - Amare Stoudamire - The knee is definitely a concern, as Amare had to have minor surgery this offseason to clean it up again, but look at how he bounced back last season.  Still only his 6th season in the league.  Amare could lead the league in scoring at anytime, and get you rebounds, blocks and center status. 

5 - Kobe Bryant - Kobe has been around forever but he is still in his 20’s (29).  He is a little older, but Kobe could lead the league in scoring for another 4-5 years with his game.  That is loads of time to re-tool if Kobe begins to finally show his age in three years.  Let him carry your scoring until that time.  Would be higher, but age and his main strength just being scoring keeps him in this range.  If you take Kobe, you set yourself up to take another younger keeper later and still have a very competitive team in year 1.

 6 - Andre Iguodala - Iggy is the man in Philly and has a sweet all around game to that has still not reached its potential.  He will continue to improve his scoring, while also getting more threes.  A great player to build your team around.

 7 - Chris Paul - Only Paul’s third season and he is dominating at the PG position already.  He would be my top pure PG off the board in any keeper league (Agent Zero is scorer playing PG in my mind).  Paul brings scoring, assists, steals to the table every night and you can expect his range to improve over the next three years.

8 - Pau Gasol - Hard to believe this is only Gasol’s 7th season in the league.  He came out with a bang and never slowed down.  The 7 footer keeps getting better and is always good for 20-10 with 3+ assists, 2 blocks, excellent FG%s and should still have center status (though maybe not after this season with Milicic in town).  Gasol is an elite big man in the league and still very young.

9 - Deron Williams - Deron took such a leap in stats in his second year, it is hard to imagine how he could improve much more this season.  He is a floor leader for Utah, and he should start to approach the 20 point level in scoring with assists, good FG% (excellent FT%) and threes.  If he could increase his steals, he would hit all guard categories. 

10 - Andrea Bargnani - Here is where it starts to get interesting and you can surprise a few owners.  While I don’t think you should pass up any of the players above, once you draft in the 10+ range, you can reach for a few players for potential, not immediate impact.  While I expect Bargnani to have an excellent season, he won’t put up stats like the above players, but his potential for a 7 footer is amazing.  He drops threes with ease, passes like a PG, shoots a pull up jumper off the dribble like a SG and with his height blocks will continue to improve.  The Raptors knew what they were doing when drafting him and so should you.

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A few blogs back I reviewed who I thought were key offseason sleepers - see here.  That list included Foye, Milicic, Magloire, Charlie Bell, Monta Ellis, Jason Maxiell, and Corey Maggette.  The only update needed at this time from that list is that Monta Ellis suffered a serious fall in practice, hurting his neck, but it turned out to be just a sprain which should affect little of preseason for him. 

Now that training camps have moved into preseason games, a few new faces are popping up on the radar.  It is still quite early on, so I plan on doing a wrap up as preseason comes to a close, but with many fantasy drafts taking place in the next couple weeks, this will be a good time to watch the following players:

Peja Stojakovic, Hornets - For the first time in three years Peja is declaring himself pain free in his back.  Not 100% in shape, but pain free.   We expected him to be rusty, as it was reported that he has barely been playing the last 6 months, and was not around the NBA scene at all, but early preseason games have him looking very sharp.  This is a guy who once averaged 25+ from mostly behind the arc, so if he is ready to put in close to a full season he could have serious impact on any roster for points and threes.  See if any injuries crop up as he plays more in preseason.

JJ Redick, Magic- With Rashard Lewis just signed to play PF, and Hedu at small forward this team is loaded with outside shooters, but Redick is looking great in the early part of 2007, and getting a lot of minutes in the rotation so far.  After being hurt heading into preseason last year, Redick was never able to really get in a groove.  With one year experience, expect this kid with the range to get some minutes.  The back court is thin in Orlando, and a pure shooter can work in any offense, and open up the floor for Howard and Lewis to go to work.

Brad Miller, Kings- Brad Miller, the center who won’t get you blocks, but could get you 10 assists, lost 25 pounds this offseason in an effort to get back into ideal game shape.  After letting himself “go” a little, coasting in Sacramento for two season as the team went nowhere, it lead to injuries and more poor play.  But remember Miller was ringing up triple doubles as a center just three seasons ago.  Now, with the current Kings team, I don’t expect those stats, but all indications from early preseason are the 25 pounds lost have put him in the right direction for a solid season.

Rudy Gay, Grizzlies - Gay had a fairly successful rookie season.  So far in training camp and the first couple preseason games, he has been flying above everyone.  With Gasol on the court for a full season to draw the double teams, and a new point guard who can run with him and get him the ball where he needs it, watch for Gay to take a big step this season to being a serious fantasy contributor.

Andrew Bynum, Lakers- Bynum had decent stats in his second year, but those stats were averages from inconsistent performances.  Bynum was very much about highs and lows, where he could be the star of the game in the first half and completly disappear in the 2nd half and not be seen for 2 more games.   But the highs showed so much promise, that with him now entering his 3rd season and reports of heavy offseason workout plan, Bynum should be ready to play starter minutes and average 10-12, with 8-10 rebounds and 1-2 blocks.  It is right there for him, if he is ready to be motivated each game.  Follow his progress in preseason and gauge from there.

Robert Swift, Sonics - I had Swift on my DEEP SLEEP list, but I am moving him up to the must watch list.  He is still unproven and coming off a knee injury, but this kid put 40 pounds of muscle on his small frame this offseason, to be able to bang with the other centers, and worked on his post moves constantly.  He has great touch around the hoop and is in line to get the starting center gig for a young team whose offense will be based around Durant and whoever is hot each night.  If he puts in a solid preseason, he is in line for a good year.

Joel Pryzbilla, Trailblazers- I haven’t been able to read many game/ training camp reports on the Pryz situation yet but he has two things going in his favor.  1 - With Oden out, he is basically only battling Channing Frye for minutes, so even with Aldridge the sure starter, between the three of them there will be lots of minutes to go around. 2 - An intense offseason workout plan has Pryz healthy again and in the “reported” best condition of his NBA career.    If those reports are true, Pryz and you see him getting minutes this preseason, he is a valuable fantasy commodity for rebounds and blocks, much more so than Frye who like to shoot outside jumpers rather than bang in the paint.

Rajon Rondo, Celtics- Rondo is already on most sleeper lists, but I have to mention him.  He is going to score very little, think 8 ppg.  He is only going to get moderate assists because the ball is not going to be in his hands as much as you would expect and he is not a playmaking guard, so think 6 assists a game and be very happy with 7 - BUT the steals, the steals.  He is an absolute thief on defense, so once you combine his modest points with decent assists and then outstanding steals, you have a decent point guard sleeper to watch for.

Week 5 is not yet complete, but we have lost a lot of quarterbacks to serious injury this season, leaving a number of backup options suddenly starting as QB1 for their teams.  This is how I would rank the options that may sit on your waiver wire:

1 - Kurt Warner, Cardinals - Maybe it is just because he has been playing spot duty and not full time, but Warner has looked great in relief of Leinhart this season.  Well in week 5, Leinhart breaks his collarbone pushing Warner to starter status for the near future and possibly remainder of the year.  With Boldin, Fitzgerald and Edge in the offense, Warner has an opportunity to be as good as any QB1 in the league.

2 - Trent Edwards, Bills- Losman was doing nothing in the Bills offense and then took a hit to his knee knocking him out for at least a few weeks.  Edwards looks like a mobile QB that fits the Bills offense more than  Losman did, and you may be watching not just a fill-in, but the new Bills starter.  Look for Edwards to build a connection with Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch and be a productive fill in QB and put up conservative 200 yard, 1-2 TD weeks.

3 - Brian Griese, Bears- This offense is far from dynamic, but Griese is a capable QB who can make things happen with Berrian, Muhammed and and the TE combination of Greg Olsen/ Des Clark.  Griese has hardly played for 2 years, so needs a couple games to get going but will be a good bye week replacement and push to be the main backup for your team.

4 - David Carr, Panthers - When Delhomme will return is still an unknown, so assume that Carr is the starter moving forward.   Carr only ranks this high for one reason right now, Steve Smith.  With Smith on the roster, Carr always has a chance to have a decent week, regardless of how bad he looks on most plays.

5 - Daunte Culpepper, Raiders - Before picking up Culpepper, make sure he is starting.  Every week the Raiders play the guessing game of who is actually going to start.  When Jamarcus gets more NFL ready that only becomes more complicated.  But right now, with McNown still out, Culpepper should get the nod for a couple weeks and has shown he can produce fantasy points from the ground and air.  If Culpepper plays careful, he has enough options (Lamont, Porter, Curry) to be a decent bye week fill-in.

6 - Cleo Lemon, Dolphins - Trent Green took a thunderous knee to his head in week 5 and suffered yet another concussion.  Expect him to be out for weeks, and enter Lemon.  Lemon enters as Ronnie Brown has been reborn, so the offense is actually starting to click which is the only reason he is worth a look.  Lemon has no previous experience so tailor your expectations, but if you are in major need of a starter, Lemon can get you a few stats. Don’t waste your waiver wire on him if it isn’t necessary, until he has started a couple weeks and you can gauge how well he is playing.

7 - Brodi Croyle, Chiefs- In week 5 as Huard leaves the game with a sore shoulder, Croyle the younger future QB version enters and this may be his excuse to start the rest of the season with the Chiefs offense completely sputtering.  Watch updates on Huard, to see if Croyle holds the starting job, but even if he does it is a major reach to think he will help your fantasy team, who’s only fantasy option should be Larry Johnson.  Only look to Croyle if you have no other options.

8 - Trent Dilfer, 49′ers- Dilfer is probably available on your waiver wire, but I do not recommend him unless you have no one else.  You will see more INT’s than TD’s and this offense has been horrible so far with Vernon out, Gore not playing well, and D-Jax invisible.

Opening game of preseason is just a day away, but already there are a number of injuries you need to be aware of as your draft approaches.  Here is a quick breakdown of players you need to cross off, or continue to update on your cheat sheets:

Greg Oden- Out for the season, but for those of you in keeper and dynasty leagues, somewhere in that 7-10 round range would be a nice time to grab Oden and stash him for the season.  You will be down a player the entire season, but you will be building for the future.

Elton Brand - Out for the season.  Only draft if you are in a keeper or dynasty league and another owner dropped him to the free agent list.

Sean May- Out for the season with micro-fracture surgery.  May has simply not been able to get on track in the NBA.  Here is hoping this surgery puts him back on the hardwood full time, and not just on the golf course.

Tony Allen- Has been cleared to play full speed.  Expect him to bring Tony along slowly in the preseason (they already have a lot going on with Garnett and Ray Ray in town), but that doesn’t mean he won’t get significant minutes in the regular season.  If the knee is sound, and mentally he appears ready to go, expect Tony to be a good sleeper for the Celtics who have little depth. 

Erick Dampier- Avoid Dampier.  Coming back very slowly from injury and his timetable is anywhere within 2 months of November through January.  He has no where near enough value to take on that risk.

Nene Hilario- Nene has a bum knee again.  Just after starting to really get his game going late last season, he is hurting again.  He is worth a draft position, but I would only touch him in the later rounds.  Don’t reach for him, and the n get burned when he is constantly day-to-day.

Sam Cassell- Sam I am is in his late 30’s folks.  He is on a team that has no Elton Brand and needs someone to step up, but Cassell will do so and then be gone for a week, and then be back, and then gone.  At this point in his career if you draft Sam, do so with the understanding as soon as he starts to sit games, drop him without concern, or you will be burned by missed games and low PT. 

Lamar Odom- Odom has had shoulder trouble since his rookie year.  Surgery this offseason was suppose to finally take care of the main problems in that shoulder.  He will probably be a little slow out of the gates, but he already attended practice, so draft Odom as you normally would but taper expectations the first few weeks.

Nenad Krstic- Will be participating in contact practice before pre-season is complete.  This is a very good sign coming off ACL surgery.  I would drop Nenad down two rounds from where he normally would be drafted, but he should give you limited stats for the first month and be back up to speed by December.  I would be more concerned about what impact Magloire may have on his minutes than the knee recovery.

Sam Dalembert- Out of his walking boot and limited in practice.  Another player who I would drop a round lower than normal, but it won’t take Dalembert long to get his timing back for rebounding and blocking which is the main purpose he gets drafted.  He was never a scorer, so if that part of his game is slower to respond it has little impact on his value.

Amare Stoudamire- Not sure why knee surgery had to wait until the week before preseason, but regardless it is better than the first week of regular season.  DRaft Amare as you normally would.

Robert Swift- Is battling knee tendonitis, but those types of ailments are to be expected after a year off, and he has not been complaining about knee strength from the surgery.  Swift needs to prove himself in the rotation before earning fantasy value but he worth a look in the late rounds.  Rumors have him gaining up to 40 lbs of muscle, so if that is true it will go a long way to making him a starter for this team. Don’t let last years knee injury scare you off, if you had him targeted later in the draft.

Deron Williams- Deron has sat out some practices, but it was simply due to an oral surgery.  No need for concern.

Jorge Garbahosa- Though he was instructed to take a second surgery, Jorge did not and instead played for his national team, which is pretty much the exact opposite.   Even though he has taken his own route, so far he is showing NO effects of the injury.  Draft him as you normally would, understanding Barganani will have a bigger role in the offense this year.

Brandon Roy - Basically has a very sore heel, from bone spurs or similar irritation.  MRI was negative and he does not need surgery, but you never want to hear about an injury that may linger all season.  Expect Roy’s minutes to be limited early in some back-to-back games but unless the heel gets really bad he will play through it.

Charlie Villanueva - His shoulder is healthy and he is ready to go.  Expect a bounce back season for Charlie V, and some very good numbers on this improving Bucks squad.

If you are in a league in the range of 16-20 teams and know you will be desperately searching the draft lists as the clock ticks down in the later rounds, keep a couple of these names handy as they have great potential for the upcoming season (I am in just one league this size for each sport every season, and it is definitely a challenge late in the draft when your queue of players empty and you are down to the end of the bench players, you need to be ready).

1 - Glen Davis, Celtics - There are a few reasons Big Baby could see some serious PT this season.  1) Following the Garnett trade the Celtics are simply low on talented big men.  Pollard and Perkins, aren’t going to cut it 48 mins a game.  If anyone is in foul trouble or suffers an injury, the next big man off the bench really has to be Davis.  2) If the Celtics are beating some teams as expected, Davis will be in many garbage time situations, where stats are plentiful. 3) Davis was a potential lottery pick the year before.  With his size, talent and no pressure to be the man with the cast around him, he could be thrown on the floor to gain experience without hurting their chances of winning, and perform well as teams double team the other three stars.

2 - Steve Francis, Rockets - Based on name alone he may go earlier depending on the knowledge of owners in your draft, but based on his last few seasons he may still be sitting there with your draft almost complete.  I am far from a Stevie Franchise fan, but he is in a good situation to get decent minutes now that he is back in Houston.  If he simply stops dribbling the ball so much and just gets the ball to T-Mac, Yao and hits his jump shot when the ball comes back out to him, Franchise could be productive.  Out on the break he can still finish, so the potential is there.  Don’t reach for him, but if he is around near the end of your draft he is worth a look.

3 - Robert Swift, Sonics - Swift just started to get it going last season when he tore his ACL.  Since then the Sonics have blown up the team he once knew and have gone with a complete youth movement around Durant.  There are a few young big men on the Sonics roster, but if healthy, which he claims he is, Swift should have the advantage over them following preseason, or by early in the year.  With such a young team, and shots dedicated to noone other than Durant, Swift could become a more important part of this offense quickly.

4 - Tony Allen, Celtics - Another Celtic player who has the potential to provide decent stats.  Allen will probably be availabel late in drafts due to his torn ACL last season, and the fact he will put in little time in preseason to prove he is back.   Remember he was tearing it up for 20 ppg and lots of steals before the knee injury.  He will be the 6th man this year, but could get decent minutes at the PG position if his knee is ready, making him more valuable to fantasy rosters, given he is passing the ball to one of Pierce, Garnett or Ray Allen.

5 - Bobby Simmons, Bucks - Chances are everyone in your draft has forgotten about Bobby Simmons.  He missed the entire year in 2007/ 08 but is healthy and close to in shape as preseason begins.  In his last two seasons before being injured he averaged 16 and 13 points with 5 rebounds and close to 3 assists, but the Bucks team he is returning to is not quite the same one he left.  With Redd, Mo Williams, Charlie V, Bogut and Yi in town, shots will not be available like in the past, but Simmons could still produce a 10-4-2 line pretty easily which might be what you need in those late rounds.

6 - Kenyon Martin, Nuggets - This is beginning to look like the all-injury team.  K-Mart also missed all of last season with knee injuries, and could easily be forgotten at your draft.   If K-Mart is available very late, you have to take a chance on him.  If his knees are finally healthy, he will still produce points, rebounds and blocks at a much better rate than anyone else late in the draft.  On a team where the pressure is on Melo and Iverson, all K-Mart has to do is stay on the floor.  At the first sign of knee pain, drop him and walk away, but heading into preseason he is claiming he will be ready this year.

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As my own fantasy basketball drafts approach, I continue to go over and over how the first few rounds should play out.  It always helps to know the tendencies of each owner, but if when I base it on player talent alone, this is how I would break down the first three rounds of a 10 team league - The Top 30 along with the next best.  While I find many ranking lists are cautious and base their rankings on how player stats ended the season before, you will see I reach for a lot of young players ready to break out or in new situations to their benefit.  Why wait to see their name ranked this high NEXT season, when you feel they are ready to make that leap now (You also may see some inconsistencies with my earlier player rankings where I have begun to hear camp rumors about certain players and am already moving them up or down a couple positions).

Round 1:

1 - LeBron James- Noone can pass up Bron, and for good reason.  He is a triple double waiting to happen every night. 
2 - Kevin Garnett- Held the #1 ranking for a long time pre-Bron.  In the East his rebounds should explode and see a boost in his already high assist totals.  His numbers could be sick this year if he gels with Pierce and Allen.
3 - Kobe Bryant - Showed up in camp like a professional.  There is always bumps in the road with Kobe, but the kid is the best scorer in the league.
4 - Gilbert Arenas - If your smart you will jump on Gilbert this early. Scores at will, steals, assists, rebounds.  Stat machine.
5 - Dirk Nowitzki - If he has center in your league he is top 3.  Does it all these days, minus assists.
6 - Amare Stoudamire - Will have center status and full minutes this year.   Excels in points, rebounds and blocks.  Don’t let knee procedure in preseason scare you off.
7 - Shawn Marion- Drops a little on my list due to preseason trade demands.  Could be lingering issues all year, but I don’t expect the Matrix to sit out ro get benched.  He is a baller, and he will be on the court regardless of talk.
8 - Paul Pierce - Pierce will not be getting double teamed this year so watch out.  Has a great all around game, and should see a bump in assists and FG%, with a small decrease in rebounds. 
9 - Dwayne Wade- Is already sitting the first couple weeks from off-season surgeries.  Hasn’t been healthy the last season and a half.  Hopefully this surgery brings Wade back to form, but the slow start moves him down my list.
10 - Chris Bosh- I am a little scared of the plantar fasciitis, as it is an injury which persists once a player has it, but I can only assume Bosh has gone to great lengths to be healthy once it set him back at the FIBA America team tryouts earlier in the summer.  When healthy he is the unquestioned leader of the Raps, and will provide points, rebounds, blocks and even the occasional three.

Round 2:

In a regular draft this is where you start picking based off of need, and in a direction which your first pick dictates, but in my mock draft we are looking at talent alone.   This round is very heavy on the point guards.

11 - Steve Nash - Will carry your team in assists, and still scores 18-20 a game with impressive threes and FG%.

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You are not going to see many blogs on here for fantasy hockey.  It is not that I don’t like fantasy hockey, hell knows that I am in enough of those leagues too, it is more that the difference in hockey players fantasy wise is so minimal that it makes rankings irrelevant (to me).  You really just need to look for players on good lines, in a decent offense.  At the end of the day that will be your rankings, but you can really take anyone’s list and move guys slightly up and down based on your own team thoughts.

It is always good to look at potential breakout players though.  I really don’t think of them as sleepers but players that look ready to take that next step and where they may have been sleepers years earlier, are now ready to make a true fantasy impact.

Phil Kessel, Boston - Kessel was a highly touted rookie last season.  He started off hot in the first few games, but then tailed off and at first it was assumed it was rookie wall, when in fact he was dealing with a form of cancer.  He battled his way through that and returned in the same year and looked good at the end of the season.  This year he will be playing a more important role on the second line and will be more ready for the demands of the pro game.  He should live up to his rookie expectations this year and if Sturm can get his game going, Kessel could be in for a 50+ point season.

Toumo Ruutu, Chicago - Another player expected to provide fantasy scoring last season and didn’t come through.  Ruutu’s issues also revolved around injuires keeping him off the ice and unable to get in a groove, and with the way last year went there are definite concerns around his ability to stay healthy.  He has huge offensive upside though and may be more motivated to act on that upside with rookies Toews and Kane in town.  Somewhat like Pittsburgh last season, the Blackhawks are ready to unleash the young crew and everyone expects they will play very well, with Ruutu having the biggest gains.

Nicklas Backstrom, Washington - Backstrom barely did not make the team last season (after deciding to stay in Sweden for one more year), and then was regarded as the best player not in the NHL for the entire season.  He appears completely NHL ready now, and on an uptempo team in Washington that is expected to suit his style perfectly.  Expect Backstrom to jump in and perform immediately, and if you are in a keeper league do not let this kid slide too far.  While playing on a productive second line and sharing time on the PP with Ovechkin, he can contribute in many fantasy categories.

Jonathan Toews, Chicago - Another rookie who has made his splash in international competition and should start on one of the top 2 lines in Chicago this season.  It may take Toews a few weeks to get himself NHL ready day in and day out, but don’t fear that he is not ready to contribute.  He needs Ruutu to stay healthy as much as fantasy owners do, in order to not let too much pressure slide his way.  An excellent keeper league prospect.

Rick Nash, Columbus - Nash scored 41 goals in a shortened injury season two years ago and was a star in the making.  Since then he has not quite been the same player, only scoring goals in the high 20’s the last couple years and somewhat forgotten amongst the young stars of the league such as Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin and others who have entered.  Nash is a goal scorer and has been trying to make his game more versatile at the expense of his true strengths.  He has also been bothered by nagging ankle injuries which finally seem to be behind him.  I expect Nash to get back on track this season with 35-38 goals and a 70 point season with a nice compliment of PIMs for those using that category.

Steve Bernier, San Jose - Bernier was sent to the minors for conditioning last season and broke his foot in the first game.  Though he came back to the Sharks later in the year and played 62 games, he never really recovered from that injury or his time off, and posted much lower numbers than was expected.  This year he will be on the Marleau line and being a hard nosed skater who can find the net, watch for him to produce well on this scoring line and make a big jump in goals and points over last year.   He is much better than last years numbers indicate, and San Jose has a very high octane offense.

Shea Weber, Nashville - Breakout status will be modest here because we are talking about a defensemen but Weber will own the point in Nashville this season.  It remains to be seen, now that Kariya, Timonen and others have left, if the Predators offense will produce, but Weber will be logging serious ice time with both the regular and PP lines and should improve on last years numbers (when he was behind Timonen).  I expect 40-50 points from Weber with good PP numbers.

Drew Stafford/ Tim Connolly, Buffalo - These two get labelled together because they are both in the same situation.  The Sabres were blown up over the offseason, with Drury, Briere and others all gone.  No big names were brought in as replacements, so there is suddenly plenty of ice time available to the young prospects on the team.  Connolly is the most talented player for the Sabres but can’t stay healthy to be on the ice, while Stafford produced 27 points amongst through many call-ups over 41 games last year.  With the opportunity in front of them this year, expect both to have that extra motivation to produce and keep their rotations.  They are great later round picks to fill out your roster with talent which could exceed expectations.

Anze Kopitar, LA - Kopitar was a huge surprise for how well he continued to produce over the course of the entire season. Only an injury slowed him down late in the year from putting up major rookie numbers.  Expect him to pick up where he left off last year and provide 65-75 points with 20-25 goals.  Another great keeper player.

Well as we get closer and closer to week 4 and almost 1/3rd of our fantasy regular season complete, there are some names that have to be mentioned.

On the Dud side some are too obvious and probably sending many fantasy owners into fits of crying in the fetal position.  Owners of Larry Johnson, Tomlinson and Steven Jackson please stand.  The consensus big three have been average or below average, and in the case of Jackson now injured for multiple weeks.  As excited as you were to get the first pick in your draft and the chance to draft LT, you are now just equally upset as you scan the fantasy boxscores Sunday night.  For those three guys though, you know they will turn it around (when Jackson returns) and in the case of LT his fantasy points actualy have not been that bad, just not at LT standards.  There are many other DUDs though that have to be called out, studs that have to be recognized or tweeners that need to be watched:

Tweener - Reggie Bush - the super sophmore was on the verge of DUD until he went for two touchdowns in week 3.  Given he had no yardage to go with those touchdowns, it is actually the season ending injury to Deuce which keeps Bush as a tweener.  Bush should get even more carries and all the redzone work now, and should start to provide some serious fantasy points.  So far though, for the model player for point per reception leagues, he has been a big disappointment.

Tweener - Cedric Benson - Some are calling Benson a dud so far, but he was not projected that high and has already put in a 100 yard rushing effort in the first three weeks.  If Chicago could do anything through the air (and Griese has just been named the new starter), then the ground game would open up more for him.  He is a good buy low candidate right now.

Tweener - Laurence Maroney - I will say it right now - noone has been more the victim of the connection between Brady and Moss than Maroney.  Maroney is averaging 4.5 ypc, and has put in some highlight reel runs, but when the team can go to the air at will and are blowing out teams by 20+ points, there is little reason to run your star young RB heavily this early in the season.  The only group affected by this are us fantasy freaks.  The main issue is if the Patriots continue to score like this, will Maroney get a heavy workoad anytime soon?  I think he is in for some big weeks as defenses adapt to trying to stop Brady from throwing, so do not sell Maroney while his value us low.

Tweener - Chris Chambers - Chambers has all the talent but has not been able to keep it up over multiple seasons.  This year it is not him I am down on, it is the Miami offense in general.  At anytime I think it can dry up and take all viable Miami fantasy players with it.  Ride the hot streak Chambers is on right now, but be weary of what Miami might be doing closer to the end of the year when you need Chambers to perform. 

DUD - Matt Leinhart - He could easily turn it around, but his production so far has been horrible given the case around him.  With Boldin and Fitz to throw to, and Edge in the backfield, Leinhart should have no problem putting up consistent 300 yard multiple TD efforts and he simply is not.  Though he will probably improve, I would trade him to anyone who still goes by his name and you can sell them on his receivers, before his benchings in favor of Warner become more consistent.

DUD - Lee Evans - I am glad I called this one in the preseason.  Many were projecting Evans to be a top 10 receiver.  Though I think Evans is a talent, without a consistent QB throwing the ball, there was no way for Evans to make that leap.  He put in a few solid games at the end of last season and was suddenly a weekly threat.  I don’t think so, and now that Losman is out hurt, I don’t think Evans has any trade value at all.

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Week 3 is in the books minus the Monday Night game, and after three weeks we can finally start to see some real trends.  We can start to tell which players are for real this season, and who should not be on a fantasy roster regardless of their preseason hype.

Lamont Jordan - Is back to being a top 10 fantasy back.  Even in an extremely weak Oakland offense, Lamont is running and catching passes at an excellent rate.  He is an every week play again.

Braylon Edwards - With a questionable QB situation heading into the season Braylon was only considered a WR2, or flex WR.  Charlie Frye played teh first half of game 1, and the predictions looked exactly correct.  Then Frye was pulled, Derek Anderson has played since and Braylon has been putting up highlight plays.  With 2 touchdowns in week 2, followed by another touchdown in week 3, Braylon is an excellent start at the moment.

Bernard Berrian - Last season Berrian was a big play receiver where it was basically all or nothing with him.  This season after watching a few Bears games, it is obvious he is their number one option on the field.  He is running short routes, streaks and is the first choice in the red zone.  Berrian is only limited by Grossman’s lack of playmaking, but he is definitely getting the targets on a weekly basis.

DeShaun Foster/ Deangelo Williams - This was suppose to be Deangelo’s team this season.  After Foster went down with yet another injury last year, the Panthers were going to hand the reigns over to Williams. But following a poor preseason by Williams, and a strong start by Foster, until Foster remembers that he is injury prone, he looks to be getting the majority of touches moving forward.  With two touchdowns and 100+ yards rushing in week 3, he only cemented that status further.  If you own Foster it might be a good time to trade for Williams (while his value is low) to handcuff him for later in the season, as it would be very rare to see Foster play 16 games.  If you only own Williams, bench him for now as he is only good for about 10-12 carries a game right now.

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