I as much as anyone have always insisted that drafting running backs early is the only way to have a successful season, but as the 2007-08 season enters its final third of the season, I am starting to question that strategy.

Running backs are considered fantasy gold for two reasons.  One - They contribute across multiple categories (rushing, receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, sometimes kick returns)  when most players only give you stats in one category.  Two - Given most fantasy leagues start at least two RBs, and the talent pool for running backs really starts to drop off around 20-25, there are barely enough starting fantasy RBs in the league to go around before bye weeks and other scheduling issues.  Supply and demand alone drives their value sky high.  If you pass on an RB, you simply may not be able to get a true starter later in the draft.

BUT this season has shown more than any other that as much as an elite running back can win you a fantasy football championship, they can send your season into the toilet just as fast.  Lets review the top running backs going into the season:

• LT, Steven Jackson, LJ, Westbrook, Rudi, Frank Gore, Addai, Alexander, Maroney, Bush,  Parker, Travis Henry

If those top 12 were to be ranked again right now, based on this season, really only 5 of them would still be top players - LT, Westbrook, Addai, Bush, Parker, and of those five LT has not been anywhere near the consensus number one player he always is and has been average at best, Addai has missed two games, Bush started extremely slow the first three games and Westbrook sat one game already.

Just look at the disaster we call the running back position this season.  From that same list Steven Jackson has only played four weeks of the season, and of those 4 weeks only really had one productive week.  Larry Johnson has been a shell of his normal self for 50% of the year and now may be on the verge of missing the final 7 weeks with a broken foot.  Rudi Johnson has been out since week 3.   Frank Gore has been battling a knee injury all season and has played like a 20th ranked player.  Alexander has been non-existent since week 3.  Maroney sat from week 3 to week 8, and has barely been involved in the New England offense even when playing.  Travis Henry started very strong the first five weeks, then got hurt, and now is on the verge of ending the season on suspension.   This isn’t even considering Ronnie Brown and Cadillac who are also out with season ending injuries, Brandon Jacobs sat much of the first 6 weeks and Cedric Benson has not been able to get going in the idle Bears offense at all (other running backs ranked in or near the top 20).

The running backs making all the noise in fantasy football are:  Ernest Graham, Kenny Watson, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson and recently Kevin Jones and Jesse Chatman.  Half of these players weren’t even in the top 300 heading into draft night.   I am not even sure Graham and Chatman were on an NFL roster when most drafts were taking place.

With the league experiencing more and more severe injuries to players, and consistently running backs, on a yearly basis, one has to wonder if another draft and season strategy would prove more valuable. 

In one draft I participated in, the team drafted Tom Brady first (of course was heckled a little for taking Brady over Manning) and then still wasn’t impressed with the RB selection so took Chad Johnson.  On his 3rd and 4th round selections  he took Adrian Peterson and Roy Williams, and finally took his second RB in the 5th round and made that pick Marion Barber.  He then picked up Kevin Jones a few rounds later.  His reasoning, was he assumed his team would be solid enough to make playoffs with the receivers and Brady, and was quite sure Peterson and Jones would be in full force by late in the season (Peterson of course has exploded well before that, and Barber has held his own as a starter even without Jones who is coming on now just as planned).  While Chad Johnson and Roy Williams have actually only been average, his draft strategy for planning for the end of the season has proved much more valuable than just taking the top running back talent on the board.  Instead he took the overall top talent on the board, at the right points of the draft, and it has more than paid off.

It will be a tough tradition to move away from, but in at least half my leagues next year I am going to draft as per norm, based on my rankings and choosing RB’s first, and in my other leagues I am going to draft based on overall talent early, handcuff players late, and then move into the season with a plan of maintaining a waiver wire position (regardless of average talent temptation each week), so I know I can grab legitimate backups who I have not already taken as handcuff players (you know they are coming, hello Graham, Watson, Ryan Grant).  Let the evaluation begin, because this is one owner who is tired of lost fantasy seasons due to ACL tears.