There are good things and bad things as you hit week 9 of your fantasy football season.
The Good
- You have had 8 Glorious weeks of sitting in front of your HD TV, laptop open in front of you, watching football and surfing live scores.
- Your probably (hopefully) have most of your bye weeks complete
- You are only 5 weeks away from playoffs
Or The Bad
- You have had 8 painful weeks of watching your team receive injuries or lose close games
- The bye weeks have killed your momentum
- Your only 5 weeks away from playoffs
The one constant is playoffs are a mere 5 or 6 weeks away depending on when your league starts their playoff schedule(hopefully in week 14, ending in week 16 or your about to suffer the pain of playing a final in the last week of the season).
The playoffs are a whole other game, because where matchups used to be simply based off of looking at how your players performed against certain teams, or the overall offense/ defense of the two teams involved, there is a new factor entering the equation - Rest Time. You have to take a hard look at your players and their team’s W/L record and schedule to see who might be pulling the surprise sit on you when you need them most. Take it from an owner who has watched Westbrook and McNabb carry their team all season, only to rest in the final weeks, or you Edge owners when he was in Indy.
Two things begin to happen.
- Teams who are completely out of the playoffs are going to start to sit veterans in favor of young up and coming players who they want to gauge before the season is out. While the veteran player probably won’t sit out completely, which you would prefer so you know whether to bench yourself or not, it will be worse because their plays will be limited and value cut.
- The second variable is the teams who are a lock for playoffs will begin to rest their best players which normally occurs in weeks 16 and 17 (the traditional finals weeks for fantasy). Again, the worst part of this is NFL teams don’t want to completely sit their players and have them out of action, but they limit their touches and you sit there right up until gametime trying to guess if your best player is going to be in long enough to be worth starting.
The fortunate thing about variable two so far this season is no team except the Patriots and Colts seem to be locking up their playoff positions early. You need to keep an eye on Pittsburgh and Green Bay, as both teams are currently in great shape and have players who would be rested (Willie Parker, Donald Driver, Favre) is the opportunity allowed. The Giants are still pushing Dallas in the NFC East, and that is exactly what you want to see happen. The top teams (who often have the top players) being pushed right until the end of the season to win their division and not willing to rest anyone.
Over the next three weeks, as the playoff picture becomes more clear, you need to target three zones of players on your fantasy league waiver wire, or as you are making your fantasy
- Young players on those non-playoff teams, who coaches have said all season they want to take a better look at. The Selvin Young’s from Denver, the Jacoby Jones from Houston (if healthy), Leonard Weaver in Seattle (if the Seahawks fall out of the playoffs), Jerious Norwood from Atlanta (if somehow not on a roster), Chris Henry (RB) in Tennessee, Tedd Ginn Jr in Miami, etc. Young players names you have heard all season who haven’t had much opportunity but could see significant playing time in the final couple weeks. Watch the coaches reports and rumors leading up to the last few weeks. If you hear a name grab him, and then wait and see if the coach decides to go with that player. It may make your decision easier between a regular starter who will only be 50% or a young playmaker who will be given the green light.
- Players on teams in a playoff fight. Anyone fighting for playoffs or a specific playoff position is going to play their best players every single down. While most of these players probably won’t be on your waiver wire, it is these players you need to look at when setting your lineups on a weekly basis. If you have two fairly equal players, in the fantasy playoff weeks, it is time to look at the player who is trying to get their NFL team to the next level.
- Handcuff the backups for your best players. If there is any concern at all regarding how the status of any of your best players for the playoff weeks, make sure you have their backup ready to go. Nothing may be as frustrating as hearing your top player is going to be out in those final weeks, you jump to your free agent list and see the backup gone to an opponent. While it may make for legendary trash talk, often your season can go down the toilet in a hurry.
If you are a lucky enough team to be in your fantasy football playoffs, do not sit back and watch your team once playoffs begins. The variables above become even more important in weeks 14-16 because that is when all of the factors above begin to take shape. Be ready to make moves on a weekly, or daily basis depending on your leagues waiver system. You may not have been able to target any young players prior to week 14, but I guarantee their will be some key waiver wire pickups once week 14 hits that could make or break a team on any given week.
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