You hear about the sleeper lists, the bust lists, the handcuff lists and so on and so on, but really it always breaks down to this - who is going to give you the most value when your picking.  The bottom line is you need more fantasy points than your opponent and who has the potential to give you that extra value?

Sleepers - In the old days of doing fantasy by hand and checking the boxscores the next morning, a sleeper player was someone you have never heard of, but with the boom of fantasy sports on the internet there are no true sleepers anymore, because everyone knows about them by May.  A sleeper now is someone you reach for that may have value by week 13 of the season as you head into playoffs.

Busts - Usually this is because that player is always hurt or has been traded to an unfavorable location.  Again, never a surprise, everyone is thinking it, you just have to decide if you buy the same hype.

Handcuffs - This is a situation you definitely want to be aware of, but in your draft when you are picking the handcuff RB or QB, these are just insurance picks.  Not your make or break choices.

What every person needs to do as they roll into draft night, is beware of the players who are being drafted low that should provide more value, or have more upside than where they are being taken.  As I study average draft positions and mock drafts this season, these are the running backs I think coudl provide more value than where they are being drafted.

1. Cedric Benson - This guy has been waiting to explode for two seasons.  His ego has hurt the mental part of his game teh past two seasons, as he really had no idea how to take a back seat to Thomas Jones, but now that the door is open for him he is hungry and motivated to prove his value.  Benson is often in the 15-20 range amongst running back rankings.  The list in front of him is a tough one to crack, but Benson is a powerful runner with top speed.  He could easily match the output of a Mcgahee, Travis Henry, Ronnie Brown and Rudi Johnson, all players who are being drafted well above him.  He will have the yards at the end of the season, and he is the red zone back.  The fantasy points are his to have so if you see him slipping, know you are getting the potential of a top 10 RB in probably your third round.   All he has to do is stay healthy for a full year.
2. Lamont Jordan - I am a little concerned writing Jordan’s name here because he is currently hurt and not participating in training camp drills or preseason games.   If that continues, then forget everything below, but assuming LJ2 can get himself together for the start of the season he has an excelent opportunity to start up where he left off two seasons ago.  Last season was a complete disaster.  The team was horrible, Jordan was hurt and nothing went right.  Just the season before, Jordan had displayed many versatile skills at the RB position, making him a top 10 choice last year.  One bad season and he is now lucky to be considered above the top 30.  I see great value here.  Rhodes is suspended the first four games, and rookie Michael Bush is nowhere near ready to comeback from injury.   The job is Jordans to take and own again.  Oakland still has no offense, so he is not a top 10 type player again by any means, but he could easily equal the value of who you are looking at in the 17-22 range amongst RB’s.
3. Julius Jones - Another RB who has slipped from the top 10, to nearly 30th.  This situation is a little more complicated because there is a new coach in town, and a very good runner in Marion Barber who most think will become the starter.  I don’t think Jones is ready to give that starter role up.  I think Jones is the better everydown back, while Barber is explosive in the red zone.  If preseason is any indication, Barber will not be getting all the red zone carries this season.  They actually may end up platooning a little more in terms of carries, but if Jones can get back some of the those carries that lead to touchdowns, then overall he will be the better fantasy RB, and worth more than the 30-35th RB on the board.
4. Brandon Jacobs - I have talked about him in other topics - why is he getting no respect?  Jacob’s is a linebacker size RB with speed and agility.   The only thing that can slow Jacobs down is if the passing offense fails and allows the defenses to key in on him.  If Eli keeps the defenses honest, you will see Jacobs rise within the top 12 for next season.  He is young, can take a pounding and perfect in the red zone.  He is a keeper RB.  Brandon Jacobs will produce more fantasy points than Thomas Jones, Carnell Williams, Deuce, etc.  An RB1 with his upside should be higher than the 24-27 range, don’t be afraid to draft him that way.
5. Ronnie Brown - Ronnie Brown?  But he is already a top 15 running back??? Yes, but this is all about finding more value from players, and like Lamont Jordan (just not as bad) he is like the forgotten man this year.  I saw him go as the 18th RB in one draft I was particpating in.  18th?  Last year he was being heralded as the next great power runner.  Everytime an offense struggles too many people jump on the bandwagon that is was all the RB’s fault and he can’t improve.  Well this is only the third year for Brown so even though the Miami offense may not be much better, a healthy Ronnie Brown for a full season looking to prove the skeptics wrong is going to produce much better numbers than last year, and probably get him closer to that top 10 again, or at least not 18th.