The fantasy football season is fast approaching. Many of you have already had your first draft or at least studied and stressed over numerous mock drafts. Only two things happen in August. Vacations and fantasy football drafts.
In the past three years the most popular question heading into any fantasy football draft is: Who is your top sleepers? Every position has multiple sleepers, and every draftee wants to know who your sleeper list contains. With today’s internet it is much harder to keep a true sleeper pick off the map, and this blog isn’t going to help matters. Over the next two weeks I will be back in touch with the fantasy world, telling all who I think the top five sleepers at each position will be. I start with your quarterback:
- Jay Cutler: I know Javon Walker is gone, but lets face it, he basically didn’t play last year after getting injured and never really returning to form. Travis Henry?? Who cares, because he was on the field less than Walker after week 5. So with those concerns out of the way, you have to look at the stats this kid piled up last season while playing every game tired, losing 30 pounds as the season went on, all due to suffering from an undiagnosed diabetes disorder. He has a cannon of an arm, and is now on a proper diet and feeling strong again. If he could play that well exhausted, which drains you both physically and mentally, you have to understand how he could respond this season with also a full year of experience behind him. The only downside to Cutler is his #1 wideout, Brandon Marshall appears to be suspended for the first two games of the season and coming off a freak arm injury.
- Donovan McNabb: McNabb is hardly a sleeper in terms of an unknown, but I am giving him this tab based on where he is going in most drafts. McNabb was a fantasy MVP the first half of 2006 before his ACL injury. Once finally healthy at the end of 2007 he started to tear it up again. The simple fact is, when healthy McNabb produces fantasy stats at a fantastic rate. Health is his only question mark, as he has not been able to close out (or start healthy) a season in three years but I feel 2008 will be a season where he out performs his average fantasy draft position. McNabb knows his days in Philly are numbered if they don’t make a mark in 2008, as well as his own reputation as a player who can stay on the field. He doesn’t have an elite squad of receivers, but they are very capable with Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, rookie Deshaun Jackson and of course All-Pro running back Brian Westbrook. Given McNabb is being drafted amongst 3rd tier quarterbacks down in the 8th (or lower) rounds, he can easily be a pick that gives you value of a top tier. He is too risky to take before any of the top five QB’s on the board, but move him up at least 1 tier in your draft plan and you could steal a quarterback that provides value near the top group.
- Matt Shaub: Shaub was having an excellent campaign in Houston, taking over as QB1 in 2007, and providing most fantasy owners a pleasant surprise in the first half of the season. Injuries then de-railed his year and he either played hurt or missed games the remainder of the season. Enter 2008 and most fantasy owners probably don’t know what to expect as the history on Shaub is still pretty limited. Expect this; in 2008 Shaub will be healthy, will have a year of experience with the offensive system and he will have a healthy Andre Johnson who was very in synch with Shaub until going out for multiple weeks with his own injury. The offense isn’t dynamic enough to be the top sleeper on my QB board, but he could put up career numbers and be the QB1 for any fantasy team in 2008.
- Marc Bulger: Another player in the McNabb model, who seems to be forgotten as a fantasy quarterback. While McNabb has slid down amongst the 3rd tier guys, Bulger is barely even being drafted. After watching him play last season, I can understand the doubts, but this guy was considered top 5 two years ago, top 8 last season and the only difference in his offense during that time to now, is Isaac Bruce has left the building. This team still has way too many weapons in Torry Holt, Stephen Jackson and Drew Bennet to believe that Bulger can’t well outperform his average draft position.
- Aaron Rodgers/ Brett Favre: Everyone was ready to jump on Rodgers as this years poster boy for sleeper QB. Finally ready to step out from behind Favre’s shadow and lead the Pack, Rodgers has come crashing back to earth as Favre in only one month went from finally retired to “I need to play again”. With Green Bay not willing to ship Brett out, the QB situation becomes very muddy. Green Bay was ready to stand behind Rodgers regardless of Brett’s stance, but recently the reports state that the QB who earns it will play. It is hard to believe that the Rodgers is going to outperform Brett Favre who basically built the current offense on this team. if this unknown saga continues into your draft, you can still use it to your advantage because with a few well placed comments you can have everyone scared of taking a Green Bay QB. Know this, either one of these QB’s can play and perform for your fantasy team with Driver, Jennings, Jones and Ryan Grant all lining up on offense. In most drafts you can swoop in late (not at the end of drafts, don’t be silly, but reasonably late) and take one of the Green Bay QB’s further scaring off anyone thinking this same route. Then take the other as the the handcuff player a couple rounds later. It most likely means you need to carry three quarterbacks to get through a bye week, but chances are you have taken a highly ranked QB much later than expected to begin with, and with some luck golden boy Favre will be traded at some point and you will have two QB1’s at your disposal.