As my own fantasy basketball drafts approach, I continue to go over and over how the first few rounds should play out. It always helps to know the tendencies of each owner, but if when I base it on player talent alone, this is how I would break down the first three rounds of a 10 team league - The Top 30 along with the next best. While I find many ranking lists are cautious and base their rankings on how player stats ended the season before, you will see I reach for a lot of young players ready to break out or in new situations to their benefit. Why wait to see their name ranked this high NEXT season, when you feel they are ready to make that leap now (You also may see some inconsistencies with my earlier player rankings where I have begun to hear camp rumors about certain players and am already moving them up or down a couple positions).
Round 1:
1 - LeBron James- Noone can pass up Bron, and for good reason. He is a triple double waiting to happen every night.
2 - Kevin Garnett- Held the #1 ranking for a long time pre-Bron. In the East his rebounds should explode and see a boost in his already high assist totals. His numbers could be sick this year if he gels with Pierce and Allen.
3 - Kobe Bryant - Showed up in camp like a professional. There is always bumps in the road with Kobe, but the kid is the best scorer in the league.
4 - Gilbert Arenas - If your smart you will jump on Gilbert this early. Scores at will, steals, assists, rebounds. Stat machine.
5 - Dirk Nowitzki - If he has center in your league he is top 3. Does it all these days, minus assists.
6 - Amare Stoudamire - Will have center status and full minutes this year. Excels in points, rebounds and blocks. Don’t let knee procedure in preseason scare you off.
7 - Shawn Marion- Drops a little on my list due to preseason trade demands. Could be lingering issues all year, but I don’t expect the Matrix to sit out ro get benched. He is a baller, and he will be on the court regardless of talk.
8 - Paul Pierce - Pierce will not be getting double teamed this year so watch out. Has a great all around game, and should see a bump in assists and FG%, with a small decrease in rebounds.
9 - Dwayne Wade- Is already sitting the first couple weeks from off-season surgeries. Hasn’t been healthy the last season and a half. Hopefully this surgery brings Wade back to form, but the slow start moves him down my list.
10 - Chris Bosh- I am a little scared of the plantar fasciitis, as it is an injury which persists once a player has it, but I can only assume Bosh has gone to great lengths to be healthy once it set him back at the FIBA America team tryouts earlier in the summer. When healthy he is the unquestioned leader of the Raps, and will provide points, rebounds, blocks and even the occasional three.
Round 2:
In a regular draft this is where you start picking based off of need, and in a direction which your first pick dictates, but in my mock draft we are looking at talent alone. This round is very heavy on the point guards.
11 - Steve Nash - Will carry your team in assists, and still scores 18-20 a game with impressive threes and FG%.
12 - Vince Carter- Very good numbers across the board (25-5-5 with threes) and seems to put his injuries behind him. Let’s hope now that the contract is signed we still see motivated Vinsanity, not lazy Vincent Lamar Carter.
13 - Chris Paul - Healthy this year so should see that jump we expected last season. Points, assists, steals, threes - a great 4 category combination.
14 - Tim Duncan - Is still the quiet gamer. Good for 20-10 every night and blocks. Good FG%, bad FT%. Consistency each game keeps him this high on my list even though others are 20-10 players below him.
15 - Yao Ming - If it wasn’t for the missed games to injury, Ming as a center would have to be higher, but he seems to be very prone to injury with his size and mechanical movements in the post.
16 - Deron Williams - Had a huge postseason and I expect he him to still improve this year. Is becoming the leader of this team. Hits all guard categories along with good FG%.
17 - Pau Gasol- Healthy this year from the start, and has a team around him that suits his style better. Conley Jr., should get him the ball in locations where he can score, so expect big points this season. Blocks are always in the top 20, but needs to be a stronger rebounder to move up this list higher.
18 - Jason Kidd - First time I have bought into the hype that Kidd may sit extra minutes. After playing in the FIBA games, Kidd may rest more early in the season as Marcus Williams is a great sub at PG. His points are already down to the 13-14 range so I have Kidd dropping on my list while others still have him top 10. If you don’t need points, move him up your list a few spots because he is still a triple double opportunity every game.
19 - Josh Smith - Still learning how to actually play and not just be an athlete…. and he is already a 5 category player.
20 - Ray Allen - Will still score 20 in Boston and lead the league in threes made. Expect higher assist totals as he plays more PG than ever before for this Celtics squad.
Round 3:
21 - Andre Iguodala- AI #1 is the go-to guy in Philly. With a year to get used to that status, expect him to average over 20 this season with better FG% and all other stats similar.
22 - Tracy McGrady- Played a majority of games last year, but still had back issues, so he is still a risk. Doesn’t take over games like he did in the past, but still has great all around fantasy numbers and should put up 25-5-5 with threes. The same as Vince but even more injury prone.
23 - Allen Iverson - AI #2 is one of two options in Denver, but that still means he is going to score 25 with 7 assists a game and a couple steals. If he could stay healthy (a trait he has never had, but he can;t play through the pain like in the past) and hit more threes again he would easily move up.
24 - Al Jefferson - He is going to get labelled - the best fantasy player on a bad team as he has gone from last years Celtics to this years Celtics (The T-Wolves). Even so, in fantasy world it still works because Big Al could go 20-12 this season with starter minutes from the beginning of the season.
25 - Joe Johnson - Calf injury was a one-time thing. He is option number one on a young Hawks team. 25-5-4 with threes.
26 - Dwight Howard- Anyone that can dominate a category like Howard does rebounding gets noticed by me. He can carry your team in rebounds and scores 18+ a game with center status.
27 - Rashard Lewis- Howard’s new teammate slides in right behind him. Lewis scores with anyone, is a league leader in threes, but his other numbers are not great for a forward.
28 - Emeka Okafor- If not for his gimpy ankle that seems to roll (not stop) on a dime, Meka would have to go above Howard. Howard is a better scorer, but Meka is equal at rebounding with better blocks and still manages 14-15 points a game. He goes here instead of Jermaine O’Neal, because while O’Neal is the much better scorer with similar bloick numbers, both are injury prone and I have a gut feeling Meka will play more.
29 - Michael Redd - A two category machine - Points and threes. Has started to at least make his assists reasonable, but you know what you are drafting Redd for if you take him here.
30 - Brandon Roy- No Zach Randolph and no Greg Oden. This will be Roy’s team this season, and he should make a big jump in his stats as option #1. A 20-5-5- season is easily in the picture for Roy this year.
The next best:
- Baron Davis - If only he could stay healthy he would be top 20.
- Caron Butler - Was playing top 25 last year and ended his season early with an injury. I have a feeling he is not going to bounce back to top 25 quite that fast.
- Gerald Wallace - Has the all around game, but injuries and J-Rich coming to town hurt his overall numbers.
- Jermaine O’Neal - Can’t trust that he will play at the end of the season when you really need him
- Carmelo Anthony - Awesome scorer, decent threes, not much else.
- Marcus Camby - Only draft if you can handle the day-2-day status the entire year.
- Josh Howard - All around game got him all-star last year, and really he should probably be higher on this list.
- Jason Richardson - Not sure what to expect outside the run and gun GS offense where he was the top gun, and into Charlotte and their less impressive offensive history.
- Carlos Boozer - Still the rebounder he always was, and now puts 20 points a game with it.
- Lamar Odom - Shoulder is close to healthy for the first time in years. An all category guy who will move up this list if his shoulder holds up.
- Corey Maggette - Watch out in Clip land without Brand. Maggette could be in for a huge year.
- Luol Deng - Showed serious game in the playoffs, expect to see more of it this season consistently.
- Kevin Durant - Don’t be afraid to draft the rook. Seattle was blown up so they could build around him. He will be on the floor constantly. We know he can score, but the other stats will come.