Well, as NFL is about to get underway (Game 1 Tomorrow y’all), it is time to switch gears and start looking at the next obsession that will totally consume all of my time (in between fantasy baseball playoffs and the first weeks of fantasy football of course). I am going to start by getting the typical rankings out of the way as I see them, position-by-position starting with the point guards. As the preseason begins I will begin to look at off season trade impacts and sleepers emerging.
1 - Gilbert Arenas- Agent Zero has made it to the top. Once a second round draft pick, he is now a bonafide fantasy stud. Some games he simply appears to be able to score at will as his size and shooting range break down whoever is guarding him. Though his assists are not at the level of other elite PGs, he still manages at least 6 a game to go along with his scoring, foul shooting and three point shooting which are off the charts for a PG. His FG % can hurt you some games, but throw in steals and you have a five category player who might lead the league in two of those cats. Heading into a potential contract year only makes him more scary. Draft Gilbert and be very happy watching him fill up a boxscore.
2 - Steve Nash- Kid Canada is kind of the opposite of Arenas in that he is a pass first PG who seems to run any offense (especially a high octane one) like clockwork. With his league leading assists though, still comes 18-20 ppg, and those points are scored with extreme efficiency as Nash is an excellent shooter. He will also provide an abundance of threes, with his only weak spot being on defense where he gets few steals. His other categories more than make up for it though, and as long as he plays on Phoenix and stays healthy, it ain’t gonna change.
3 - Deron Williams- I think this kid is ready to make the jump into the top 3. I think he leapfrogs Chris Paul because their assists and scoring will be very similar by the end of the season, but Deron is the better three point shooter and has a better FG%. Williams improved so much from his rookie year, to his second year that Utah was finally able to let go of the John Stockton memories. It is year three when players really seem to step up, so watch out for Williams this year, especially after playing with the FIBA Americas (the NBA elite) team all summer.
4 - Chris Paul- Barely gets beat out by Williams for the third position. Last year it did not seem like Paul improved much but other factors were at work. He had a foot and wrist injury that lingered on for the entire second half of the season. He also did not have teammates Peja or David West on the floor, so he was basically on his own, and defenses were designed just to contain him. If he and his teammates are healthy this year Paul will begin to take that next step. One area he is a big improvement over Williams in is steals as Paul is an absolute thief. He also gets to the line like he is a PF. Paul could easily win his way back into being a top 3 fantasy PG by the end of the season.
5 - Jason Kidd - It is hard for me to put this personal favorite at number 5, but eventually he has to slow down a little. As it is, he is still a triple double threat any night of the year, but those triple doubles are coming with fewer points scored, and fewer threes made, which is the only reason he drops at all. If your team is already strong in scoring points, do not hesitate to draft Kidd. His assists, steals and rebounding are amazing for a PG.
6 - Baron Davis- The Baron is climbing to #6 after his playoff performance but he comes with a huge asterisk. His game easily equates to this ranking, but his fragile body should have him ranked more in the 8-10 range. He simply can’t seem to stay healthy. After watching him seem rejuvenated in the playoffs, I am hoping this is the season where he puts injuries behind him for the most part and puts in a solid season. If the Warriors are winning I think it will happen, but if they are only playing .500 ball, trade Davis quick because a injury is around the corner. With Davis you get scoring, threes, assists, steals and a bad FG%. His FT% has actually improved to average so it is not a bonus or hindrance.
7 - Kirk Hinrich - Still improving on a young Bulls squad. Captain Kirk will give you scoring in the range of 15-18 points, along with good FG%, assists, threes and steals. Though he doesn’t dominate any of those categories, he is above average in all of them which makes him a valuable player. The Bulls haven’t gone through many off season changes (at the time of writing this) so expect his numbers to stay around the same.
8 - Chauncey Billups- The once journeyman turned finals MVP just had his contract renewed for 4 years for big numbers. Not that I think that will affect Billups mind set or game much this season, but I think his best season may be behind him, not in the next four years, and not this season. I expect Billups point production and threes to remain close to the same, but his assists may have been more elevated last season than an older Detroit team can produce this season. He is a consistent player who you can feel comfortable drafting if the players above are off the board, but don’t reach for Billups for higher than this at this stage of his career.
9 - Mike Bibby- Bibby deserves a top 10 look, but no higher especially while his contract status is still an unknown. Depending on where Bibby lands will determine how much of his game comes out. In Sacramento be became the man, so scoring and threes were plentiful. On other teams you may not get that production and he is not a playmaker who will ever have a ton of assists. After his scoring and shooting he is actually a average fantasy point guard, but the fact that he could be on a team which needs 20+ points keeps him top 10. If he ends up in Cleveland or Miami, drop him down a few notches as he will play second fiddle to Wade and/ or Bron.
10 - Raymond Felton - I think Felton will show the biggest jump of any PG in year three of his career. Brevin Knight is gone, so though Felton took over Charlotte last year, it is officially his team now. He is like a young Andre Miller with three point range. He fills up a boxscore with decent scoring, assists, steals, rebounds and threes with his upside for steals and threes very high. If it was not for his low FG% (38% last season) and games where he doesn’t seem to show up, he would jump up the list 2 or 3 positions with ease as a five category guard. If you like to draft for upside and unproven value, then take Felton ahead of the previous three players, and hope he has been working on his outside jumpshot this summer.
Close but not top 10:
Tony Parker - excellent scoring and FG%, but no threes and few assists
Andre Miller - excellent assists and steals, but no outside shooting
TJ Ford - Does not get starter minutes every game with Calderon on team
Watch for:
Randy Foye - A lot of boxscore categories open to fill now with Garnett gone
Mo Williams - A scoring PG, who may have found a home in Milwaukee
Stephon Marbury - Never sure which Starbury is going to show up